Article by Bryan Howard
October 11, 2018
According to the most recent polls Republicans are highly likely to retain the majority in the Senate and potentially gain seats. Democrats will be fully dependent on winning all 7 seats that are considered a toss up to gain a majority now.
The polls show the Republicans have 49 seats that are not up for reelection or considered safe in the polls, while the Democrats have 44 seats. This leaves 7 seats up for grabs that are considered toss ups. These seats are Tennessee, Arizona, Missouri, Nevada, Indiana, Montana, Florida.
The problem the Democrats are facing is two of the seven seats are starting to pull out of range of toss ups to lean Republican which are Tennessee and Arizona.
Tennessee race was highly contested, but since Brett Kavanaugh the poll is widening. Republican Marsha Blackburn is up by 14 points against Democrat Phil Bredesen, according to the New York Times poll this week.
Arizona race has flipped on its head with Republican Martha McSally leading Democrat Kyrsten Sinema by 6 points according to ABC poll.
The other five seats are up for grabs and could go either way.
Missouri- Republican Josh Hawley leads by 0.4 points over Democrat Claire McCaskill. However, McCaskill will likely drop further behind since she voted against Brett Kavanaugh in a deep red state.
Nevada, Indiana, Montana, and Florida are virtual ties and only time will tell how those races play out. But since Republicans are likely to win at least two of these seven races they will maintain the majority of the Senate after the mid-terms.